Yoel Hanegbi,
CEO of Eshone Energy, invites guest
writer Christian Paulus to provide an assessment of the U.S. Renewable Energy Policy; where it falls short and
what solutions he offers to close the gap.
Policy decisions
are necessary to accelerate adoption of renewable energy. We have been
fortunate that in the U.S., major bills providing significant subsidies have
recently been signed into law. However, do we put those funds to work in the
most efficient way? In this article, we
will review the U.S. policies for PV Solar systems and evaluate the behavior
these policies promote. Finally, we will contrast the U.S. policy direction
with Germany's, as the leader in PV solar.
.
. A) Government
policies and subsidies to promote renewable PV Solar energy projects
Government policies provide the legal basis for grid-connected
distributed energy generation. They also provide incentives and subsidies to
offset some of the costs of Solar Photovoltaic (PV solar) installations. We
will provide an overview of the most important policies applicable for PV solar
systems in the State of California.
1) Federal tax incentives
Federal
tax incentives significantly lower the costs of PV solar projects for
taxpaying
entities such as residential consumers or businesses.
- Investment
Tax Credit (ITC) - The “Energy Improvement and
Extension Act of 2008”1,
signed into law on October 3, 2008, includes an 8-year extension of the 30%
residential and business Investment Tax Credit for solar systems.
- Modified
Accelerated Cost Recovery System (MACRS) and Bonus Depreciation2 - The IRS allows businesses
a five-year accelerated depreciation of eligible assets such as PV solar
systems, reducing the taxable income.
If certain criteria are met, the Energy Improvement and
Extension Act of 2008 also provides a bonus depreciation: 50% of the installed
costs of a PV solar system can be depreciated in the first year, while the
remaining 50% can be depreciated over the original schedule.
2) Federal incentives for the public sector
Next
to federal incentives for residential consumers or businesses, there are also
federal incentives for the public sector such as Clean Renewable Energy Bonds
and Renewable Energy Production Incentives.
- Clean
Renewable Energy Bonds (CREBs)3 - For any investment, interest rates
are used to describe the cost of capital. For PV solar projects, the initial
investment costs are the biggest cost factor so that the interest rate
plays an important role in the overall costs of the project.
CREBs are a means to lower the cost
of capital for renewable energy projects. They can provide public entities with
(supposedly) interest-free capital. First, the Congress needs to allocate
funds. While this had only happened twice in the past, as part of the “American
Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 20094”,
an additional $1.6 Billion has just been allocated. Public entities can apply
for those funds at the IRS for allocations. Once the public entity has received
an allocation, a CREB can be issued to finance, for example, a PV Solar
project. An investor who purchased the CREB receives a tax credit instead of
interest payments.
Drawbacks include high transaction
costs, an overall difficult process and the requirement to make the first bond
principal payment in the same year the CREB was issued, even though the system
may not be in service yet. Furthermore, CREBs claim to providing interest-free
financing is often not true.
- Renewable
Energy Production Incentives (REPI) - REPIs provide a production-based
incentive program for renewable electricity generation. There are two
significant challenges: Incentive commitments are made long term, but its
funding is dependent on annual federal appropriations. In fact, “funding has been insufficient to meet 100%
of the qualified REPI payments”.5
As a result, lenders don’t count on REPIs.
3) State
and local incentives
In
addition to the federal government, state and local governments can also
provide incentives to promote renewable energy projects. Those programs are
financed through System Benefit Charge Programs (SBCs) or through state and
local government bonds. SBCs have been implemented in many states to fund
various renewable energy related programs such as the California Solar
Initiative, which can significantly lower the costs of a PV Solar project.
California Solar Initiative (CSI) - The
goal of the CSI is to create 1,750 MW through PV Solar. The incentives decline
with increasing electricity generation in ten steps. There are two incentive
types:
- Expected Performance – Based Buy –
Down (EPBB): EPBB applies for systems smaller than 50KW. Incentives are paid
one-time, up-front, based on the expected performance of the system rather than
merely based on the installed capacity.
- Performance Based Incentive (PBI):
PBI applies for systems over 50KW. Subsidies are paid for five years based on
the actual KWh generated.
The
current residential EPBB payment is $1.90/KWh.
State and local government bonds6 - Next
to SBCs, State or local governments can issue
municipal bonds (General obligation bonds or revenue bonds) to raise capital
for PV projects. However, there are many examples where the issuing
government was not able to get the bonds to market, despite authorization to
issue them.
4) State policies enabling revenue generation
Net Metering -Many
states provide net metering policies which provide the framework for
distributed energy generation: It regulates, and thus simplifies, how consumers
can feed in electricity, which was generated in a distributed fashion, into the
utility power grid.
“Net metering allows consumers to offset the cost of
electricity they buy from a utility by selling renewable electric power
generated at their homes or businesses back to the utility. In essence, a
customer's electric meter can run both forward and backward in the same
metering period and the customer is charged only for the net amount of power
used.” 7
If a customer generates a net excess, he will receive a retail credit from the
utility, which will be carried forward to his bill for up to 12 months8.
Solar Renewable Energy Credits (SRECs) - Many
states define Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS), specifying targets for
renewable energy as a percentage of the overall energy the utilities provide to
their consumers.
The
dominant mechanisms to help utilities meet the RPS compliance goals are
Renewable Energy Credits (REC’s) or Solar Renewable Energy Credits (SRECs):
SRECs represent the attributes of green energy from PV Solar systems, which can
be sold separately from the generated electricity. They can also be traded in
voluntary green power markets.
SRECs
can provide a significant revenue stream: 3 Phases Energy Services report that SRECs can contribute 42% to the NPV of a solar
project in Colorado.9 10
The retail price of a REC typically ranges from 1c/KWh to 2.5c/KWh for residential
and small commercial customers.11
However,
RPS policies differ greatly on state, region, utility or green power market
level. While in California SRECs do not trade for compliance yet, the
California Public Utility Commission is proposing to change that12.
B) The behavior the
renewable energy policy promotes – a residential PV solar use case.
We will now evaluate what impact the policy decisions could
have on a residential PV Solar system owner. 13 We consider two residential consumer examples: A
fairly moderate 3KW system and a larger 10KW system. The Federal Investment Tax Credit and the
California Solar Initiative’s EPBB apply, which together, significantly reduce
the initial investment costs nearly 50%
However, in both cases the initial investment costs ($12,810
or $42,700 respectively) can still be considered to be significant. Financing
can play an important role in overcoming this barrier by spreading the high
initial investment costs over the life time of the system. The financing
payments replace, at least partly, the payments to the utility company for an
electricity bill. There are multiple financing approaches such as simply using
a consumer credit or using a commercial entity such as a solar solution
provider.
When using a financing approach, an interest rate needs to
be applied to depict the cost of capital as well as the investment risk. No
matter how low the interest rate, the ITC and CSI EPBB subsidies are not sufficient
for PV Solar systems to reach grid parity.
Unless investors are willing to pay a premium for “green” electricity,
wide spread adoption of PV solar systems will not occur.
In an attempt to further adapt to reality, we can consider
that during the past five years the average residential electricity prices
increased 4.78% per year. Assuming that this trend continues, revenues from
generating electricity through PV solar will also increase: The 10KW PV Solar Power
System can reach or surpass grid parity (for all interest rates of 6.78% or
smaller) while the smaller 3KW PV Solar system can only reach grid parity with a
positive monetary value set at an unrealistic interest rate of 0%.
1) Break even scenarios
This
calculation reveals two significant drawbacks of the current subsidy
structure:
- Investors
need to be willing to make long term assumptions about electricity price
increases to justify a PV Solar investment. If electricity prices
increase less than expected, investors are stuck with too high payments
over time periods of 20 – 25 years. Of course, on the other hand, if
electricity prices increase more than expected, investors not only have
predictable prices over a long time period, they also have locked in a
price which is below the market rate. While there is risk and opportunity,
many investors will simply not be willing to make assumptions for time
periods of 20 to 25 years.
- Energy
conservation is not incentivized. Instead, the larger the PV system, covering
potentially more wasteful energy consumption habits, the higher the
monetary returns14.
Furthermore, environmentally conscientious persons who conserve energy and
who may be most interested in installing a PV Solar system, receive less
monetary value from a PV Solar investment and thus may not invest at all.
Smart
PV system owners take tiered15
utility pricing models into consideration to further maximize their monetary return. The rates
increase in steps as consumption increases. In addition, we can calculate the
break even electricity price within this tiered model, where a PV Solar
investment would turn into profitability.
The
graphic below demonstrates that there is a threshold, mostly depending on the
applied interest rate16:
For an interest rate of 6% (reflecting a hypothetical electricity price of
0.214$/KWh) or even 7%, it would make economic sense to replace the electricity
consumption for Tiers III, IV and V with electricity generated from a PV solar
installation. It would not be profitable to substitute the entire electricity
consumption, i.e. Tiers I and II. If an interest rate of 8% is applicable, it
would only make sense to replace Tier IV and Tier V, but not Tier I, II and III
any more.
2) Break even points in a tiered utility pricing model
As
a result, the existing incentive structure promotes substitution of only
parts
of the electricity consumption: The installed capacities will be limited.
On
top of all the challenges mentioned above, the existing benefits structure is
complex:
- There
are too many, fragmented programs.17
- Programs
often differ widely on local, state, utility or green power market level.
- Programs
often differ widely on the recipients of the benefits such as residential
consumer, businesses, public entities.
It
is time consuming to research the various programs and potential
recipients of benefits may not be aware of them.
Lastly,
some programs are short term in nature: They do not provide sufficient
financial predictability and continuity. As a result of the complex and/or
short term nature of the policy decisions, the value of incentive programs may
not be maximized.
3) To summarize:
The existing policy decisions can promote undesirable or unfavorable
behavior. The current subsidy levels and structures:
- Do
not support the goal of widespread adoption. Unless many consumers are
willing to pay a premium for “green” electricity, wide spread adoption of
PV solar systems is not encouraged.
- Do
not reward energy conservation. Instead, consumer segments with high
electricity consumptions are rewarded, who are less likely to be
environmental conscience and thus less likely buyers of PV systems.
- Do
not maximize installed capacities. Instead, only partial substitution of
the electricity consumption by PV Solar generated electricity is promoted,
further limiting adoption.
- Require
consumers to make long term assumptions and thus, does not provide
sufficient long term predictability (e.g. electricity price increases).
- Can
be unstable over the long term so they are not utilized (i.e. REPIs).
- Are complex and thus, the value of incentive programs may not be
accessible to all potential recipients.
C) The behavior the
German renewable energy policy promotes
Let’s now contrast the U.S. Policy approach and the behavior
it promotes with Germany's Renewable Energy Law (EEG), which is discussed in “Policy decisions are necessary for a transformation of our energy
systems”. At the heart of the EEG are Feed-in
tariffs, which specify the payments for renewable energy generation.
The simplicity of this policy structure is immediately
obvious: For example, a typical residential consumer operating a PV Solar
Power System on his roof will receive 43.01 Euro cents for every KWh fed into the
electricity grid.
To provide an accurate financial comparison between the U.S.
and the German policy benefits, we need to consider that the average solar
radiation in Germany is significantly lower than in the U.S. and that the
residential electricity prices in Germany are higher (16.5 Euro cent / KWh)
than in the U.S. The graphic below depicts the financials for a 3 KW Solar Power System with a solar
incident of 1,000 KWh/m2/year.
Economic benefits when applying the
German EEG law
Even without making any long term assumptions about
electricity price increases, a moderate 3KW system almost reaches
profitability at a 0% interest rate.
Once long term assumptions about electricity price increases
are taken into consideration, the EEG policy drives widespread adoption of PV
solar for all consumer segments, even with a high financing interest rate
of up to 7.1%: The Net Present Value is positive (i.e. consumers earn income on
their PV Solar Power System).
Since the Net Present Value is positive below the break even
interest rate of 7.1% interest (i.e. the Internal Rate of Return), this policy
encourages installing the maximum capacities or even installing over-capacities.
The German EEG law has been introduced in 2001, providing
long term stability for all PV solar operators.
We conclude that the German EEG policy does not promote many
of the undesirable behaviors, which can occur as a result of the U.S. Policy
directions. We recommend introducing feed-in tariffs into the U.S.
energy legislation to further increase adoption of renewable energies.
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more graphics, the sources listing, and assumptions.